Important Points emerging from the data relating to past general elections
I. Potential States where BJP can get enough seats to cross 273 mark in Lok Sabha:- UP (won 57 seats in 1998 Elections); MP (won 30 seats in 1998 Elections); Bihar (won 23 in 1999 Elections); Rajasthan (won 21 in 2004 Elections); Gujarat (won 20 seats in 1999 Elections); Maharashtra (won 17 seats in 1996 Elections); Karnataka (won 13 seats in 1998 Elections); Chhatisgarh (won 10 seats in 2004 & 2009 Elections); Odissa (won 9 seats in 1999 Elections); Jharkhand (won 8 seats in 2009 Elections); Delhi (won 7 seats in 1999 Elections); Andhra Pradesh (won 7 seats in 1999 Elections); Haryana (won 5 seats in 1999 Elections); Assam (won 4 seats in 2009 Elections); Uttrakhand (won 3 seats in 2004 Elections); HP (won 3 seats in 1989, 1998, 1999 & 2009 Elections); Punjab (won 3 seats in 1998 & 2004 Elections); Tamil Nadu (won 3 seats in 1998 Elections); Arunachal Pradesh (won 2 seats in 2004 Elections); Goa (won 2 seats in 1999 Elections); J&K (won 2 seats in 1998&1999 Elections); West Bengal (won 2 seats in 1999 Elections as also in 1951 Elections by Jan Sangh); Dadra Nagar Havelli (won 1 seat in 2009 Elections); Daman&Diu (won in 1998 & 2009 Elections); Chandigarh (won 1 seat in 1996&1998 Elections) and Andemans & Nicobar (won in 1999 & 2009 elections). Further, the number of seats where BJP has been able to win in one or the other previous elections are as follows:- UP=66; Uttrakhand=5; MP=28; Chhatisgarh=11; Bihar=19; Jharkhand=14; Rajasthan=24; Gujarat=26; Maharashtra=25; Karnataka=25; Odissa=9; Delhi=7; Andhra Pradesh=8; Haryana=5; Assam=5; Himachal Pradesh=4; Punjab=3; Tamil Nadu=4; Arunachal Pradesh=2; Jammu & Kashmir=2; West Bengal=4; Goa=2; Daman&Diu; Dadra Nagar Haveli=1; Andemans Nicobar Is.=1; Chandigarh=1. State/UT-wise list of Parliamentary Constituencies is as under:-
A. Uttar Pradesh:- 1. Aonla 2. Amroha 3. Amethi 4. Aligarh 5. Allahabad 6. Agra 7.Azamgarh 8.Bilhaur 9. Bareilly 10. Bijnor 11. Bulandshahr 12. Bansgaon 13. Banda 14. Basti 15.Baghpat16. Balrampur 17. Barabanki 18. Bahraich 19. Chail 20. Chandauli 21. Deoria Domriaganj 22. Etah 23. Etawah 24. Faizabad 25. Farrukhabad 26. Ferozabad 27.Fatehpur 28. Gorakhpur 29. Ghazipur 30. Ghatampur 31. Ghaziabad 32.Gonda33. Hathras34. Hapur 35. Hardoi 36. Hamirpur 37. Jaunpur 38. Jalaun 39.Jhansi40.Jalesar 41. Kannauj 42. Kaisarganj 43.Khurja 44. Khalilabad 45. Kanpur 46. Kheri47. Kairana 48. Lucknow 49. Maharajganj 50. Mohanlalganj 51. Misrikh 52. Mirzapur53. Muzaffarpur 54. Mathura 55. Meerut 56. Machhlishahr 57. Pilibhit 58. Padrauna59. Robertganj 60. Rampur 61. Saharanpur 62. Saidpur 63. Shahjahanpur 64. Sultanpur 65. Unnao 66. Varanasi.
B. Uttrakhand:- 1. Tehri Garhwal 2. Garhwal 3. Almora 4. Haridwar 5. Nainital
C. Madhya Pradesh:- 1. Balaghat 2.Betul 3.Bhopal 4.Bhind 5.Damoh 6.Dhar 7.Guna 8.Gwalior 9.Hoshangabad 10.Indore 11.Jabalpur 12.Khandwa 13.Khargone 14.Khajuraho 15.Mandsaur 16.Morena 17.Mandla 18.Rewa 19.Rajgarh 20.Satna 21.Sidhi 22.Shajapur 23.Seoni 24. Sagar 25.Shahdol 26.Tikamgarh 27.Ujjain 28.Vidisha
D. Chhatisgarh:- 1.Bastar 2.Bilaspur 3.Durg 4.Janjgir 5.Kanker 6.Raipur 7.Rajnandgaon 8.Raigarh 9.Sarangarh 10.Surguja 11.Mahasamund
E. Bihar:- 1.Araria 2.Bettiah 3.Buxur 4.Bhagalpur 5.Chapra 6.Darbhanga 7.Gaya 8.Katihar 9.Kishanganj 10.Madhubani 11.Motihari 12.Nawada 13.Patna 14.Purnea 15.Pashmi Champaran 16.Purvi Champaran 17.Siwan 18.Sheohar 19.Sasaram
F. Jharkhand:- 1.Chatra 2.Dhanbad 3.Dumka 4.Giridh 5.Godda 6.Hazaribagh 7.Jamshedpur 8.Kodarma 9.Khunti 10.Lohardaga 11.Palamau 12.Ranchi 13.Rajmahal 14.Singhbhum
G. Rajasthan:- 1.Ajmer 2.Alwar 3.Bayana 4.Bharatpur 5.Bikaner 6.Bhilwara 7.Banswara 8.Barmer 9..Chottorgarh 10.Churu 11.Dausa 12.Ganganagar 13.Jaipur 14.Jhalwar 15.Jalore 16.Jodhpur 17.Kota 18.Nagaur 19.Pali 20.Sawai Madhopur 21.Salumbar 22.Sikar 23.Tonk 24.Udaipur
H. Gujarat:-1. Ahemdabad 2.Anand 3.Amreli 4.Broach 5.Bhavnagar 6.Banaskantha 7.Baroda 8.Bulsar 9.Chhota Udaipur 10.Dhandhuka 11.Dohad 12.Gandhinagar 13.Godhra 14.Jamnagar 15.Junagarh 16.Kutch 17.Kapadvanj 18.Kaira 19.Mehsana 20.Mandvi 21.Porbandar 22.Patan 23.Rajkot 24.Surendranagar 25.Surat 26.Sabarkantha
I. Maharashtra:- 1.Akola 2.Ahemdnagar 3.Bombay NE 4.Bombay N 5.Bombay S 6.Buldhana 7.Bhandara 8.Beed 9.Chimur 10.Chandrapur 11.Dahanu 12.Dhule 13.Dindori 14.Erandol 15.Jalgaon 16.Jalna 17.Kopargaon 18.Latur 19.Malegaon 20.Nanded 21.Nasik 22. Sholapur 23.Thane 24.Wardha 25.Yavatmal
J. Karnataka:- 1.Bangalore South 2.Bangalore North 3. Bangalore Central 4.Bidar 5.Bellary 6.Bagalkot 7.Bijapur 8.Belgaon 9.Chikmagalur 10.Chikodi 11.Chitradurga 12.Devangere 13.Dharwad North 14.Dharwad South 15.Gulbarga 16.Haveri 17.Kannad South 18.Kannad North 19.Koppal 20.Mangalore 21.Mysore 22.Raichur 23.Shimoga 24.Tumkur 25.Udupi
K. Odissa:- 1.Balasore 2.Bolangir 3.Berhampur 4.Deogarh 5.Kalahandi 6.Keonjhar 7.Mayurbhanj 8.Nowrangpur 9.Sundergarh
L. Delhi:- 1.New Delhi 2.South Delhi 3.Outer Delhi 4.East Delhi 5.Chandni Chowk 6.Delhi Sadar 7.Karol Bagh
M. Andhra Pradesh:- 1 .Secunderabad 2.Kakinada 3.Rajamundhry 4.Karimnagar 5.Tirupathi 6.Mahabubnagar 7.Medak 8.Naraspur
N. Haryana:- 1.Ambala 2.Karnal 3.Faridabad 4.Mahendragarh 5.Sonepat
O. Assam:- 1.Karimganj 2.Silchar 3.Gauhati 4.Nowgong 5.Mangaldoi
P. Himachal Pradesh:-1.Kangra 2.Mandi 3.Hamirpur 4.Shimla
Q. Punjaqb :- 1.Amritsar 2.Gurdaspur 3.Hoshiarpur
R. Tamil Nadu:- 1.Nilgiris 2.Coimbetore 3.Tiruchirappali 4.Nagarcoil
S. Arunachal Pradesh:- 1.Arunachal East 2.Arunachal West
T. Jammu & Kashmir:- 1.Udhampur 2.Jammu
U. West Bengal:- 1.Dum Dum 2.Krishnanagar 3.Darjeeling 4.Calcutta SE
V. Goa:-1.Panaji 2.Mormugao
W. Daman & Diu; Dadra Nagar Haveli; Andemans Nicobar Is.; Chandigarh
Thus there is potential to win 302 seats by BJP , and with existing allies (Shivsena, Akali Dal) & with the likely allies (AIADMK, MNS & others)
the probability of reaching 325 mark by the NDA is fairly high provided the following golden principles are adhered to:-
Ø Declaring Sh. Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate;
Ø Immediately commencing the process of candidate-selection by objective screening based on merit & potential;
Ø Conducting ground survey reports based on objectivity rather than the usual party channels which often is totally subjective;
Ø Formulating proper strategies at macro & micro levels (keeping in view the area/community/caste/gender/religion based sensitivities) to design the campaign as well as the manifesto for the election most ideally;
Ø Completely contain the menace of in-fighting from party-worker level to the top-leadership level;
Ø Keeping the election campaign more oriented towards positivity i.e. BJP’s plans for positive action on assuming power;
Ø Identifying additional potential allies and accordingly formulating the campaign strategy;
Ø Adopting a proactive rather than a reactive approach all through the election process.
II. Vote % increase since 1951:- Starting with a humble vote share of 3.06% (as Jan Sangh in 1951 Elections), BJP could attain 25.59% (in 1998 Elections). While the vote share of Congress Party came down from 49.10% (in 1984 Elections) to 25.82% (in 1998 Elections).
III. Vote Share vis-à-vis Congress:- In 1951 Elections, 32.46 lakh voters voted for Jan Sangh candidates all over India while in 1998 Elections this figure (for BJP) reached at its highest at 946.66 lakhs.
IV. Vote Share vis-à-vis other Parties:- In the last general elections (2009) the vote share of the National Parties was:- BJP=18.80%; Congress=28.55%; BSP=6.17%; CPI(M)=5.33%; NCP=2.04%; CPI=1.43%; RJD=1.27%.
V. Vote% & number of seats of State Parties in 2009:- The number of seats won by important State political parties [BJP’s potential Allies) (and their vote share) in 2009 elections was:- Akali Dal in Punjab=4 (33.85% vote share); AIADMK=9 (22.91%); Shivsena in Maharashtra=11 (17.01%). DMK in Tamil Nadu won 22 seats (vote share=25.12%); SP in UP won 23 seats (vote share=23.25%; AGP in Assam won 1 seat (vote share=14.61%; BJD in Odissa won 14 seats (vote share=37.24%); JD(U) in Bihar won 20 seats (vote share=24.04%; TRS in AP won 2 seats ( 6.16% vote share).
VI. BJP’s Likely Ally:- In keeping with the previous trends, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu is likely to win +25 seats. As per indications, this will add to BJP tally.
VII. Better prospects in Bihar and Odissa:- In Odissa and Bihar there is every likelihood of BJP gaining good number of seats. Anti-Congress sentiment in Assam will help BJP in winning a couple of more seats.
VIII. Scope for regaining seats in Andhra Pradesh:- BJP having clearly supported Telengana State formation, the party will certainly win a couple of seats, keeping in view the fact that even in 1984 (when BJP could win only 2 seats in India) one seat was won in AP.
IX. Anti-Congress Factors:- The following is certainly going to transfer many seats from Congress kitty to BJP kitty:-
v A)The Scams (CWG, 2G Spectrum, Coal-gate, Rail-gate etc.);
v B) Damage to Constitutional Institutions (PMO, CAG, Federal Structure, Statutory Commissions/Bodies, Parliamentary Committees and the Parliament itself);
v C) Questionable (subjective-basis) appointments of vital functionaries ( CVC, Election Commissioners, Secretaries & equivalent level etc.)
v ;D) Blatant misuse of CBI to arm-twist the ‘Allies’ as well as the ‘Opponents’ to ensure the survival of UPA government;
v E) Deeply-engraved impact of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev movements against corruption of UPA government on the general masses.